Sunday, September 09, 2007
A tropical wave about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands was designated Invest 91L by the National Hurricane Center this morning. The wave is producing a large area of cloud and thunderstorms. Wind shear over this poorly organized system is is low, about 10 knots/12 mph/19 kmh, and is forecast to remain so. The extratropical storm located in the mid-North Atlantic, southwest of Newfoundland and west of the Azores will have some influence on this system drawing it further north. In short, all of the conditions are there to cause this system to develop over the next few days. It is currently moving westward at about 13 knots/15 mph/24 kmh.
The Statistical Hurricane Intensity Predicition System (SHIPS) model has predicted this system will develop into a Category 1 hurricane in about 4 days. That's a long way down the prediction scale, but it means this system bears serious watching.
UPDATE: Further information on Invest 91L and Tropical Depression Gabrielle is here.