Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Hurricane Henriette nearing second landfall - updated computer models tracks 05/2000Z

Hurricane Henriette is nearing the coast of mainland Mexico. The eye will make landfall in a couple of hours or less. The cyclone is still a Category 1 hurricane and is carrying sustained winds of 65 knots/75 mph/121 kmh.

Henriette is currently tracking due north through the Sea of Cortez at a speed of 10 knots/12 mph/19 kmh and is expected to make a turn towards the North Northeast later today. The cyclone is expected to come ashore somewhere in the area of southern Sonora State. Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the coastal area from Topolobampo in northern Sinaloa, to Bahia Kino in southern Sonora.

Henriette is expected to weaken quickly after making landfall although it will dump up to 12 inches of rain over a relatively wide area of northwestern Mexico creating a danger of flash floods and mudslides. Storm surges of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels are expected.

Computer models are showing a high degree of conformity although at this point there is little room for larger errors. The longer tracks extending well inland should be ignored.

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