Saturday, September 18, 2010

Hurricane Igor and Tropical Storm Julia 18/1400Z

Hurricane Igor has weakened over the past 24 hours and is now placed at the top end of the Category 2 scale. Igor has estimated maximum sustained winds of 95 knots (175 kmh/110 mph) with higher gusts.
At 0900Z (UTC/GMT) the cyclone was located about 475 miles (765 km) South of Bermuda tracking Northwest at 11 knots (20 kmh/13 mph).
Igor will probably restrengthen to Category 3 over the next 24 hours and then gradually weaken, Igor is a massive cyclone and Bermuda lies directly in the forecast path. The official CPA of Igor's centre to Bermuda is 10 miles. Within the bounds of storm forecasting, that is a direct hit.

Hurricane Warnings are up for Bermuda. Bermudians can expect a long assault by Igor. Hurricane force winds extend out to 90 nautical miles (105 miles/165 km) in some quadrants. Tropical Storm force conditions can be expected by this evening Bermuda time and Hurricane force winds no later than Sunday evening but likely in the afternoon. It will then be a long haul for Bermuda as Igor passes and Bermudians should be prepared for 24 hours of Tropical Storm conditions, 8 hours (or more) of which will be Hurricane conditions.

Tropical Storm Julia weakened as expected and is now carrying sustained winds of 50 knots (93 kmh/58 mph). The cyclone is located 1525 miles (2450 km) West-Southwest of the Azores. It is tracking Northwest at 16 knots (30 kmh/18 mph). Julia is expected to weaken fairly rapidly due to high shear and much cooler sea surface temperatures in its path. This cyclone continues to constitute a risk to shipping although it poses no threat to populated areas.

A tropical wave located off the Cape Verde Islands has shown some significant development and is being closely watched. Invest 94L.

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