Monday, June 21, 2010

BP... meet Invest 93L

The satellite picture is that of a tropical wave which is showing serious signs of developing over the next 48 hours. At the moment it is designated as Invest (investigate) which means it is getting a good looking over with some extra resources.

What makes this particular tropical wave so interesting? Location, location, location. It may not look very organized at the moment but...

The wind shear is minimal and

the water is extremely warm.
NOAA is giving this tropical wave a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression. That's a pretty solid forecast. The only thing that might inhibit development is that it is currently tracking West-Northwest at 25 knots and may encounter increased wind shear before it has a chance organize.

If it does develop, take a look at the sea surface temperature chart above. All that lovely warm water will feed it.

As always, click on any image to enlarge.

Friday 25 June: Updated information here.

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