Sunday, April 09, 2006

The pots are starting to boil over

Watching Seymour Hersh on CNN with Wolf Blitzer this morning was suitably terrifying. Hersh was holding back nothing in describing Bush as having adopted a messianic view of his position in the situation with Iran.

Hersh suggested Bush feels he alone has the courage to take Iran to task. That means not leaving it to a future president and not worrying about the outcome of elections, both in 2006 and 2008.

In this New Yorker article, Hersh lays out the debate, the plans and the questions over Iran and its quest for a nuclear weapon. He paints a picture of the inevitibility of a US attack on Iran, not because that is the only way of dealing with Iran, but because Bush feels he is the only one who can do it.

And if that doesn't scare the hell out of you, let's add more to the mix.

Here I pointed out that there are strong suspicions that the military leader of the insurgency in Iraq, having fomented a religious civil war in that country has shifted his aim to the Levant, and is now busy in Gaza. Then the Sunday Times, Marie Colvin, who is in Gaza, reports that al Qaeda is busy recruiting fighters amid the confused and unstable situation there.

Palestinian security officials claim to have growing evidence that Osama Bin Laden’s terror network, which has hitherto shown little interest in Gaza and the West Bank, is recruiting among the angry young men who see little beyond a future of attacking Israel.
The problem here is that al Quada and Zarqawi's efforts will likely work. The refugee camps of Palestine have long been the breeding ground of terrorist organizations and spawned Hamas which, despite its origins as a charity, became better known for its work blowing up things and people.

While Palestinian groups have always focused on re-establishing a Palestinian homeland and government, al Qaeda actually has no interest in that goal. They are more intent on creating a Caliphate and a nationless Islamic kingdom. In the past, Palestinian nationalists could find no home in al Qaeda - now, they're joining because it means they can strike at Americans, Israel's strongest supporter and ally.

Bush's belief that he can take out Iran's nuclear program in a single night of bombing does little to take stock of the whole mid-east situation. Zarqawi, having achieved his aim to disrupt Iraq and let the Sunni and Shi'a turn the place into a bloodbath means that he can push his fighters elsewhere. Many have gone to Afghanistan. Others are in Pakistan and still others have gone to Gaza. Al Qaeda, is also recruiting and it would not be beyond imagination to see, despite ideological differences, a Hamas-al Qaeda alliance.

Bush and his sycophants, who have proven they can't think strategically, nor plan for contingencies, seem to believe that a US attack on Iran is preferable to a similar attack conducted by Israel. Supposedly, the Bush administration believes the Arab reaction to an attack by Israel would spark greater violence than one in which the US is the attacker.

There is so much more at play in the Iran situation, than just Iran, that one can't be blamed for suddenly starting to shiver in fear. The Bush administration has proven many things about its group look at world affairs. One is that diplomacy is a nonexistent field of endeavour for this administration. Others are the fact that this administration is terribly impatient; it has demonstrated that it does not understand the consequences of releasing its military might; and, it tends to ignore the military realities outside the small elipse of concern at any given time.

Of the principle players, whether they be the leaders of Iran, Palestine or the United States, none are demonstrating any level of sanity and all are diplomatic incompetents. This is shaping up to be a distaster of apocolyptic proportions.

(Regret the dial-up connection limited my post and better links.) Hat tip to reader Cat for the New Yorker link.

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