Tuesday, August 03, 2010
As tropical cyclones go, this is a small one, but it is a named storm, it is moving towards the west and, however low the possibility is, it could increase to hurricane strength. It is way too early to give any kind of confident forecast on this system, however, if this follows the typical re-curving track of tropical Atlantic cyclones there is the very slim possibility that Colin could pay a visit to Nova Scotia should it go extra-tropical.
All of that, however, is speculation. The NHC official discussion on Colin is that it has become very ragged and there is some question as to whether there it still has closed circulation.
Most of the intensity models do not suggest that Colin will intensify greatly over the next 48 hours, however, it is currently in an area of low wind shear and very high sea surface temperatures. The possibility of Colin encountering increased wind shear along its forecast track is very high.
This is one to watch. (As always, click on any image to enlarge)