Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona - 312230Z

The above video provides a graphic image of the size and power of Hurricane Earl. It comes in toward the end of the clip. About half way through you can see the edge of Hurricane Danielle making a recurve out toward the North Atlantic.

Earl is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle which has a tendency to reduce the intensity somewhat. The cyclone is getting some significant wind shear although it is powerful enough that it may not be weakened as a result. All of the models show a weakening of the wind shear generating upper low as Earl moves by.

As forecast, Earl has begun to recurve to the northwest. It is currently tracking about 305 degrees true, advancing at roughly 12 knots. Wind speeds at the surface are estimated at 115 knots (213 kmh/132 mph). Hurricane watches have been issued for the US east coast from north of Surf City, North Carolina to the NC/Virginia border. Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

TS Fiona tracking just north of west at a phenomenal 21 knots (39 kmh/24 mph) is expected to start experiencing some fairly significant wind shear which will probably prevent it intensifying beyond a tropical storm. This cyclone is expected to turn northward and decelerate in the very near term. The influence of Earl will likely cause Fiona to dissipate sometime in the next 36 to 48 hours.

Below is a shot from the GOES13 project which captured the North Atlantic at a busy moment. To the north is Hurricane Danielle, Hurricane Earl to the south and further to the east is the rapidly approaching TS Fiona.

Click on any image to enlarge.

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