Thursday, September 02, 2010
As Hurricane Earl advances the Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Hurricane Watch for Yarmouth, Queens, Shelburne and Digby Counties in Nova Scotia. The remainder of the province with the exception of Cape Breton Island, is under a Tropical Storm Watch. In New Brunswick, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Gand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County, Saint John and County, and Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick.
Earl has weakened slightly and is now proceeding due north at about 16 knots. The conditions of warm, humid air and high sea surface temperatures suggest Earl will make a Canadian landfall as a hurricane with tropical characteristics and not become an extra-tropical storm until after it passes into the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
The probabilities of Earl reaching Canadian locations as a Cat 1 hurricane in the next 48 hours, as provided by the NHC are as follows:
Yarmouth NS - 43%
Halifax NS - 16%
St John NB - 27%
Moncton NB - 21%
TS Fiona is tracking as previously discussed and is unusually persistent, having survived despite the higher wind shears.
Gaston has died and is now declared a remnant. That doesn't mean it can't regenerate later, but for now it no longer presents a threat.
A new tropical wave is being closely watched off the coast of Africa.