Friday, September 03, 2010
Hurricane Earl is weakening as it runs into cooler water and feels the effect of the mid-latitude Westerlies. Intensity on the surface is about 75 knots (139 kmh/86 mph). The cyclone is tracking in a direction of north northeast at 18 knots (33 kmh/21 mph) as generally predicted by models and the NHC. Earl is expected to pass Cape Code as a hurricane and continue to weaken.
Earl will most likely make landfall as a strong tropical storm somewhere between the Maine/New Brunswick border and the southeast coast of Nova Scotia sometime on Saturday morning.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued Tropical Storm Warnings for most areas of mainland Nova Scotia and all of Prince Edward Island. Hurricane watches are in effect for Halifax, Lunenburg, Queens, Shelburne, Yarmouth and Digby counties of Nova Scotia.
Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the remainder of Mainland Nova Scotia, Cape Breton Island, Southeast New Brunswick and Iles de la Madeleine.
Two items are worthy of mention. The winds on the east side of Earl will be markedly greater than the western semi-circle due to its direction of advance. Depending on the time Earl arrives and the direction of its approach to land, the storm surge in the Bay of Fundy could be significant and dangerous, however, expected time of landfall (at low tide) and the Neap tide cycle may mitigate the danger.
TS Fiona is still active and has survived despite considerable wind shear. Tracking north northeast at about 11 knots (20 kmh/13 mph) with weakening wind speeds of an estimated 40 knots (74 kmh/46 mph), Fiona is about 18 hours away from making a direct pass over Bermuda.
Busy weekend for some.