Pondering Lebanon - part 3

I put no faith in crocodile tears, or any other moderating statements coming out of the Israeli government. They are engaged in a war, and it can only be assumed that they mean to win it. If their goal is to destroy Hizbollah, then I prefer to look at Israel’s actions in the context.

So Israel is now pushing deeper into Lebanon. How far they intend to go is unclear, but far enough to reduce Hizbollah missile ranges would be logical. I think it is fair to say they want to de-populate southern Lebanon of, well, as many Lebanese as possible. The logic is simple: Hizbollah is an organic part of the social and political landscape of south Lebanon, therefore in order to defeat Hizbollah, obliterate the environment in which they exist. Destroy the social and civic infrastructure that supports them. This means demonstrating in the worse possible way, to the civilians in the region, that it is a better option for them to leave. If that means turning their homes and workplaces into rubble, cratering roads and destroying bridges so be it. It is the equivalent of draining a lake to kill the fish. If the civilians are gone, then anyone left must be Hizbollah and is fair game for the IDF. If you have to slaughter the odd batch of innocents to emphasise the point, so be it. If the UN are on a hill taking notes and you want them out of the way, drop a guided bomb on their position so there can be no doubt they are not longer welcome. It doesn’t matter what you say in public. This fight is for keeps.

Obviously, if this the strategy Israel is pursuing when it says it wants to “break the back of Hizbollah” then it makes no allowance for people who are unable or unwilling to leave their homes and families. It seems the IDF took a note from Katrina and the US government’s response to it but has gone a step further by intent (opposed to incompetence on the part of the USG) and by actively discouraging aid delivery to make the point. It is ‘hope-denial.’ (I keep hearing Peter Sellers/Dr. Strangelove utter the word “slaughter” in my head as I type this)

This might theoretically work for Israel, but if it does it will only in the short-term and provided the Syrians or anyone else doesn't get really involved. In the end though, this round just creates more rage and hatred, which in turn will lead to more slaughter. Or World War III given the present regional context. Bloody minded fools on all sides.