Cease fire. That means EVERYONE.

140624Z Aug 2006.

The UN mandated ceasefire in Lebanon has been in effect for about 1 1/2 hours at the time of writing.

Despite the fact that both sides hammered each other relentlesly right up to the minute of the truce taking effect, there seems to be relative calm.

Israel has lived up to its part of the bargain. At the moment the cessation of hostilities took effect, IDF headquarters issued an order to its troops in Lebanon to halt all movement and stop the current operation. IAF aircraft have disappeared from Lebanese air space.

Hezbollah could be a different story.

While accepting the ceasefire agreement, they clearly stated that they would continue fighting if Israeli forces remained in Lebanon. And the IDF isn't leaving until some force other than Hezbollah occupies that ground.

That suggests that this ceasefire doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell of holding. Given where both sides are now, ignoring the past 34 days, it's up to Hezbollah to back away from their promise of more fighting.

And, it's up to both sides to get through the fuzziness of a stand-off as quickly as possible while minimizing truce violations.

That would be my best hope and, unfortunately, I don't believe there's much chance that this won't turn into an even uglier situation before any peacekeeping force arrives.

I hope I'm wrong.