The the NDP surge in popularity is a game changer. There are some who are very worried that this will create the circumstances that will lead to a Harper majority because of the non-Con vote split. There are some who think that we'll end up with a Con minority and a Dipper official opposition. There are some who think Liberals will win, lose or draw.
The basic fact is that you'd have far better luck herding cats in a field full of mice than you would policing enough of the electorate to strategically vote the Conservatives out of office. In the past I've put faith in this idea, but people will vote how they vote and until the Parties themselves start telling people to vote for the other guy, strategic voting remains a fantasy.
How this election plays out, therefore, remains to be seen. Some NDP or Liberal led minority? Some coalition of non-Cons going to the GG and usurping a Con minority? Another Con minority? A sweeping Con majority?
I don't know and neither do you. We will find out May 2nd.
So what do we do? Well, lets imagine the worst and the Opposition divides itself and the Cons sweep in with a majority? Well, that's something we'll have to deal with. What are you going to do under a Con majority? Sit there and take it, whinging away while a Harper party bludgeons the country?
Or are you going to find ways of subverting and resisting that government? Will you accept that the game has changed and life isn't always fair or easy? Will you accept that sometimes the circumstances of your existence demand that you step up and act? Will you think strategically about the next few years? You can focus on the local and provincial/Territorial levels; places where you stand a chance (if you don't live in Alberta) of electing progressive governments able to challenge the Harpercons? Will you some of you decide not to pay a cent in taxes to an entity that names itself Harper Government, or work on ways to limit your participation in a society that is not what you thought it was?
Will you see a Harper majority be a catalyst for a revolution in progressive politics in this country and act accordingly? Will you card-carrying Liberal, NDP, Green, or even Bloc progressives see the Harper majority as a call arms, something that spells the post-war era of Canadian party politics you subscribe to and work toward an evolution of that system?
Or will you sit there and turn on your fellow progressives, and blame them for allowing a Harper majority? Will you use that as an excuse for inaction or noncooperation with whatever cohort you blame? Will you spend your time gazing rearward, with an angry fantasist's nostalgia at what might have been?
A Harper majority doesn't mean the game is over.