Friday, January 28, 2011

Morning thought

It occurs to me that the ultimate resolution to Palestinian-Israel question will come from outside that binary. The Wikileaks cables, and the radical shift in power and governance that may really be happening in the Arab world, Egypt and Lebanon in particular and potentially other states if the revolution is exported, are game changers for both themselves and Israel.

There is a very real risk of a major war.  Israel's strategic and tactical position shifts if new governments in these places begin a much more active campaign of support for the Palestinians either through arms or threat of, or diplomacy. Israel's response, given the past record may well be military and the outcome likely much less certain than it was in 1967. Suddenly Iranian nuclear facilities seem very far away.

Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope that brains more than brawn are used to work their way through this.


Edstock said...

"There is a very real risk of a major war."
With whom? The elephant in the room that nobody acknowledges is that the Arab countries just don't have what it takes to off Israel. 1948: fail; 1956: fail; 1967: fail; 1973: fail.
I don't like the right-wing ultra-orthodox Israeli settlement policies, but these days, the politically-correct are righteously dumping on Israel. This promotes a wishful mindset in the politically-correct that warps reality, which is that Israel is here to stay, insh' Allah.

Boris said...

I'm not dumping on anyone. I'm playing the realist and saying that this changes the power balance. Israel benefitted from the stability imposed by long regimes with clear memories of losing those wars who opted against challenging them. The new generation of Arabs, and the continued intractability of the Palestinian - Israel conflict, Israel's one trick pony of engagement with the Arab world, etc etc create circumstances of uncertainty given that the status quo could well be no more.