The oyster in the mine shaft

About seven years ago two oyster hatcheries located on the US Pacific northwest coast began to experience mortality rates which decimated 80 percent of their brood stock. The oyster larvae were dying before they had a chance of developing.

There was a strong suspicion that some strain of bacteria was to blame. And, in the initial research investigations, some elevated bacteria levels and some toxins were discovered. However, none was persistent nor strong enough to have caused a die-off in successive years.

One group looked at a particular possibility: the chemistry of the north eastern Pacific coastal waters. What they found was conclusive proof that increased acidity in the coastal waters of Pacific North America was preventing oyster larvae from properly forming coherent shells, killing them long before they could start to mature. (If you don't want to wade through a scientific oceanographic paper, you can get the gist from this Seattle Times report).

It is now documented that the world's surface oceans have suffered a 16% decrease in carbonate ion concentrations and the pH of global sea water has dropped by 0.1 of a unit from the pre-industrial era. It is likely colder northern waters are suffering even a greater loss of balance.

The reason is simple. The oceans are the largest carbon sink on the planet. They suck up 2 million tonnes of CO2 daily. The more that gets pumped into the atmosphere, the more the ocean sucks up. As the oceans absorb more CO2 from the atmosphere it adds to the CO2 that naturally rises due to coastal upwellings. The increased CO2 levels create a higher acidity level. The elevated acid (reduced pH) is corrosive to calcium carbonate minerals, the stuff that marine life uses to make critically protective shells.

Here is a short, simple, but informative video on how the process of shell formation is impaired by increased CO2.



Of course, there's more to it but, compared to climate physics and chemistry, the chemistry of the ocean, particularly where CO2 is having an effect, is relatively easy. And it's very obvious.

Upwellings occur as a result of ocean movement. Simply put, storms and high wind move the surface and draw up the deeper CO2 saturated water. Much of the CO2 from the deep is naturally occurring although a significant portion is the result of anthropogenic increases in the atmosphere.

What isn't natural is the elevated CO2 already at the surface. When the deeper ocean water rises it mixes with surface water. The resultant coastal water has a higher CO2 level than is usually found. That disturbs the formation of calcium carbonate, which weakens shell formation and ... oysters pay the price.

Big deal?

Yes it is. In fact it's very big. For one thing this is happening decades faster than anyone ever thought it could. But the worst is yet to come.

The upwelling water and the wide area surface waters take decades to move. The increased CO2 saturation in the water that has been arriving on the North American Pacific coast is from many decades ago when anthropogenic CO2 was, as the authors of the paper point out, substantially lower.

What's coming will be even more acid and even more corrosive.

Those baby oysters are the canary in the mine shaft.

Enjoying the weather?

This is what's happening.

That's the Jet Stream at 1800Z. (Courtesy Wunderground.com)

I'll let Dr. Jeff Masters explain.

The ongoing March heat wave in the Midwest will continue to set all-time heat records through Thursday, gradually shifting its peak intensity eastwards during the week.

And ...

Record-breaking heat has also penetrated into the Prairie provinces of Canada over the past week. Winnipeg, Manitoba has broken its record high for the past five days in a row, and hit 24°C (75.2°F) yesterday, its hottest March temperature on record. Forecast high temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday across Ontario are near 26°C, which will threaten the records for hottest March day in history for Windsor, London, Hamilton, and Toronto.

Why?

The unusual warmth is due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S.--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. This jet stream pattern is too extreme to be stable, and the big loop over the Western U.S. will break off and form a giant eddy on Wednesday. The resulting area of low pressure will be known as a "cut-off low", because it will be cut off from the jet stream. The cut-off low will drift slowly eastwards during the week, gradually bringing an end to "Summer in March" over the Eastern half of the U.S.

... and  Eastern Canada.

What caused the unusual loop and temperatures higher than have ever been recorded?

Surface heating and displacement. For some reason the cold air which usually resides over the pole was shoved southward.

That was caused, in simplistic terms, by the Arctic Oscillation being in a positive phase. (Lower than average pressure at the pole and higher than average temperatures across the landmasses to the south). Then it went negative. Europe got smacked with some significant cooling. But North America ended up with one of the wackiest Jet Stream configurations ever seen and that very odd and very dangerous loop.

There will be "water events". Big ones.

Please do not connect this with the effects of accelerated global warming. That might make you uncomfortable. It's best if you ignore it and believe that wearing shorts in Winnipeg in March is a great idea.

Oh yeah. Move to high ground. You can't hear Rex if your antenna is under water.

A linked event:

A massive snowfall along the Coquihalla Highway has prompted a travel advisory for the route between Hope and Merritt today and could help set the record for the deepest snow pack measured at the route's summit since its completion in 1987.
Travel along the route today is not recommended, said Dennis Kurylowich, operations manager for the Thompson Nicola District, Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure.
Since 2 a.m., "we've had about 30 cm of snow," he said at around noon. As much as 50 cm could fall on the Coquihalla by the end of today, he added, stressing that people should "only travel if necessary."
The all-time snowpack record came in 1999 when 346 cm of snow was recorded at the summit.
As of two weeks ago, the summit's snowpack was 324 cm, he said.

Now, most of the readers here are smart enough to know that a snowfall, especially a heavy one, is a water event. And the event on the Coquihalla is a result of warmer, not colder, temperatures.

Heavy snowfall has been coupled with temperatures of about one or two degrees Celsius warmer across the region, he said.

 

Maxime Bernier for PM? You betcha!

C'mon, he's decorative, he's dumb, and besides, since he came out today as a climate change 'skeptic', the Blogging Tories have been falling all over themselves to get their teabagging credentials in order :

"Maxime really is great!!! Keep up the good work Maxime. One day you will be HM PM.

"You had me at Bonjour"

"Finally a Canadian Conservative Speaks Truth"

"Enter Maxime Bernier with a daring volley launched in the heart of climate lunacy."

"Maxime Bernier for Prime Minister! Finally, someone on the government side with the cajones to speak out."

Finally - I think they meant to say - a Sarah Palin with cajones.

Max speaks :

"What is certain is that it would be irresponsible to spend billions of dollars and to impose unnecessarily stringent regulations to solve a problem whose gravity we still are not certain about."

Gravity? Gravity is also a hoax! The earth sucks! Max for PM! You betcha! Also! Too!

You'd almost think someone laid a trap

I don't know if you could pay somebody enough to suck in the entire AGW denier community this way. (Yes. They are a community. With no science to back them up, they share an ideology. The only thing different among them is the breed of pony they wish for.)

First, you get this tripe from Michael Asher:

The American Physical Society, an organization representing nearly 50,000 physicists, has reversed its stance on climate change and is now proclaiming that many of its members disbelieve in human-induced global warming. The APS is also sponsoring public debate on the validity of global warming science. The leadership of the society had previously called the evidence for global warming "incontrovertible."

[...]

The APS is opening its debate with the publication of a paper by Lord Monckton of Brenchley, which concludes that climate sensitivity -- the rate of temperature change a given amount of greenhouse gas will cause -- has been grossly overstated by IPCC modeling. A low sensitivity implies additional atmospheric CO2 will have little effect on global climate.

Paper? Really?! On a forum?!!!

That's not a paper! That's some loony writing a blog. For one thing, here's the disclaimer on his so-called "paper". (The original colour of the disclaimer is maintained for flavour)

The following article has not undergone any scientific peer review. Its conclusions are in disagreement with the overwhelming opinion of the world scientific community. The Council of the American Physical Society disagrees with this article's conclusions.

We'll get back to Lord Monkton of Brenchley in a moment.

In the meantime, first out the blocks to jump all over this, (between cheeseburgers, fries and diet cola), is none other than the Doughy Pantload.

Oh... oops! Jonah didn't do enough background. But then, Jonah doesn't do background. And while he usually dances around this kind of stupid fuck-up, he was forced to admit that he actually misled his readers.... because of this from the American Physical Society.

The American Physical Society reaffirms the following position on climate change, adopted by its governing body, the APS Council, on November 18, 2007:

"Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the Earth's climate."

An article at odds with this statement recently appeared in an online newsletter of the APS Forum on Physics and Society, one of 39 units of APS. The header of this newsletter carries the statement that "Opinions expressed are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of the APS or of the Forum." This newsletter is not a journal of the APS and it is not peer reviewed.

At that you'd think everyone else would notice that Jonah got his diapers pulled down and would have steered well clear of this topic.

Apparently not.

And apparently there aren't a lot of retractions, with the exception of Goldberg's, flying around out there.

Then Gavin noticed something about Lord Monkton of Brenchley.

As if that weren’t enough, Lord Monckton is a British upper-class loony who, when not financing and publishing phony scientific papers, falsely claims to be a member of Parliament.

Of course a few bloggers north of the 49th grabbed the initial bit of Asher's nonsense and Monkton's faux-paper, but the whole thing having been dispatched by the APS as total bullshit, you know they'd retract or correct right away. Right?

Apparently not.