Cease fire. That means EVERYONE.

140624Z Aug 2006.

The UN mandated ceasefire in Lebanon has been in effect for about 1 1/2 hours at the time of writing.

Despite the fact that both sides hammered each other relentlesly right up to the minute of the truce taking effect, there seems to be relative calm.

Israel has lived up to its part of the bargain. At the moment the cessation of hostilities took effect, IDF headquarters issued an order to its troops in Lebanon to halt all movement and stop the current operation. IAF aircraft have disappeared from Lebanese air space.

Hezbollah could be a different story.

While accepting the ceasefire agreement, they clearly stated that they would continue fighting if Israeli forces remained in Lebanon. And the IDF isn't leaving until some force other than Hezbollah occupies that ground.

That suggests that this ceasefire doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell of holding. Given where both sides are now, ignoring the past 34 days, it's up to Hezbollah to back away from their promise of more fighting.

And, it's up to both sides to get through the fuzziness of a stand-off as quickly as possible while minimizing truce violations.

That would be my best hope and, unfortunately, I don't believe there's much chance that this won't turn into an even uglier situation before any peacekeeping force arrives.

I hope I'm wrong.

How's that cease-fire working for ya?

The best trained and most technologically advanced army in the Middle East, with a ground strength of around 50,000 troops, got its ass kicked yesterday by a so-called "rag-tag" militia with an estimated strength of 5000 fighters.

24 troops killed in one day. Against an enemy that supposedly lacks sophistication and heavy weapons.

Israel grossly underestimated Hezbollah. The US helped them along in reaching that underestimation. High-tech, precision guided ordnance and maneouvre warfare surely trumps a bandoleer-wearing partisan with an AK-47 and a grenade launcher.

Israel (and the US) committed the first cardinal sin of armed conflict. They failed to respect their enemy. What they were viewing as little more than armed thugs turned out to be well-trained, highly motivated, adept infantrymen with an eye for tactics. And the fighting arm of Hezbollah pulled a tactic out which the IDF may have anticipated but which the political leadership of Israel dismissed - dig in deep, dig in hard, come and get me.

What was supposed to be a rollover turned out to be a hard and costly fight.

And now, we have a ceasefire. Well, sort of. Both sides are still banging away at each other and will continue to do so until at least 0500 GMT, 14 August, 2006. Each side is trying to consolidate a political position. Hezbollah - that it will fight to the last man; Israel - that it will leave no place for Hezbollah to regroup.

The problem is, as always, how to enforce a ceasefire and compel both sides to withdraw. The UN is trying to put together a force of 13,000 troops to bolster the 2000 strong UNIFIL contingent already in southern Lebanon. Supposedly this 15,000 member force will have strong military capabilities and a stronger mandate that will allow immediate action to be taken against anyone threatening the peace. That's easier said than done and how soon that number of troops can be brought together and placed on the ground is as yet an unanswered question.

Even if a UN force of significant size can be deployed quickly, and that isn't terribly likely, it will take several days to sort out interoperability problems and determine who is where on the ground.

The mud in the soup, however, is the Lebanese army. What looks good on paper is, in fact, an under-funded, poorly trained, ill-equipped hollow shell of a force with no experience. Lebanon is expected to put 15,000 troops into southern Lebanon to fill a vacuum left when the Israelis withdraw and then oversee the disarming of Hezbollah.

The problem is, unless Hezbollah voluntarily surrenders their weapons, the Lebanese army is powerless to force them to comply. If, in fact, the Lebanese army even wants to.

The equipment Lebanese soldiers will use to perform their duties is outdated, in some cases even dating back to the 1950s and 60s. Many of the army's 300 tanks are more than 20 years old, and its artillery doesn't pack much of a punch. Military officials concede that they currently lack even a single serviceable combat jet. The navy has been sailing more or less blindly since Israel's air force disabled its radar systems. Besides, the few ships it has stationed in the south are more or less ineffective. Indeed, many doubt that the Lebanese military will have much of an effect at all.

Israel has already made it clear that it will not agree to the deployment of an exclusively Lebanese military force to secure a buffer zone in southern Lebanon. The Olmert government's strongest argument is Israel's experience in the recent past. Despite a 2004 United Nations resolution that calls for the Lebanese army to patrol the south, Hezbollah has been expanding its dominant position since the Israeli withdrawal in 2000. No one expects Lebanese security forces to be capable of controlling or disarming Hezbollah's fighters.

Add to all of that the fact that the Lebanese army is severely factionalized. A majority of its officers are Christian or Sunni Muslim. The enlisted ranks however, are about 70 percent Shi'a Muslim. Despite the fact that the Lebanese armed forces are supposed to be secular, the sympathies of an overwhelming number of the rank and file lies with Hezbollah.

An international force is expected to "support" the Lebanese army in establishing a dominant presence in southern Lebanon. Given the activity of the Lebanese army over the past 6 years, and the last month in particular, that will translate into doing the job for them - if such a force can get there in time. Right now, it still doesn't exist.

If a ceasefire is to hold one of the imperatives would be to give the Lebanese army a boost in equipment and capability. Lebanon cannot afford to outfit their forces any better than they are now. The country's economy was crippled before the Israeli assault - now it is shattered.

Israel, of course, would object to any strengthening of the Lebanese army, a position which places them between a rock and a hard place. A stronger Lebanese army represents a standing military threat to them, but without it Lebanon cannot prevent the growth of militias bent on the destruction of Israel.

This ceasefire is little more than breathing room. Unless the UN can put a force in quickly, and with a mandate strong enough to shoot in either direction should the belligerent parties violate the agreement or threaten civilian lives, the Lebanese army will be unable and unwilling to do the job.

Regrettably, this ceasefire is likely the prelude to the next armed encounter between Hezbollah and Israel.

Update: Steve from farnwide provides this link to BBC which suggests that the whole ceasefire is now in serious jeapordy.

Crucial Lebanese cabinet talks on disarming Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon under a UN-brokered ceasefire have been put off.

What that will translate to is a ceasefire in name only. The Lebanese army will not deploy to southern Lebanon and any UN force is weeks away from being able to get established on the ground.

At the going down of the Sun, and in the morning...

With respect and condolences to the family and friends of Corporal Andrew James Eykelenboom, 1 Field Ambulance.

In arduis fidelis

At the going down of the Sun, and in the morning...

With respect and condolences to the family and friends of Master Corporal Jeffrey Scott Walsh, 2nd Battalion, Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry.

The Terrorist Threat. Here's a paper bag. Breath into it.

The apprehension of 24 suspected terrorists in the UK raises more questions than are presently being answered. The British authorities are being taciturn on the subject short of the facts of the event itself.

What is not in question is that to many, the thwarting of an alleged plot is generating as much dread as if an act of terrorism itself had occured. Right blogistan and the political fear mongers are over-consuming valuable oxygen while they hyperventilate their way to a state of euphoria. Like kindergarten tots, they are pissing themselves while they jump up and down, point all around and scream, "See! I told ya so!"

There is a distinct smugness evident in those who would have us quake in our boots, agree with their limited world view and admit that there are terrorists under every bed. The goal is to have us melt with fear and submit to the will of the self-proclaimed "strong ones". They have the answers and we must assume the appropriate paranoia, suspicion and limits on our freedom - so that we can all remain free. We are expected to add to a commodity which is surfeit in their community - fear.

No. Fucking. Way.

The media has, quite expectedly, gone nuts. As usual, with a serious lack of information, major news outlets have hyped this story 25 ways to Sunday in an attempt to appear authoritative and well-informed. It's not just the lead story in every news organ - it's the only story. In 12 hours of coverage they produced no more information than they had been given at the initial announcement. But, the continued onslaught served its intended purpose. People, filled with fear, were glued to their TVs.

And the story is that 24 suspects with a plan to blow up 10 airplanes were apprehended before they could execute any plan.

The whole event played right into the hands of the world's leading wank. George W. Bush's statement on the subject, despite the fact that it was a rerun of every other non-attack, was enough to gag a maggot.

.... a stark reminder that this nation is at war with Islamic fascists who will use any means to destroy those of us who love freedom, to hurt our nation.

Ah yes. The very worn "they hate us for our freedoms" song. A shallow mind, hard at work - with the deductive power of an earthworm. Funny how when the police and intelligence services produce results and interdict Bush talks war. When his country is under direct attack, he reads passages aloud from Siegfried Engelmann and Elaine C. Bruner.

The basic tenet being presented by the righteously indignant is that global terrorism started on September 11, 2001 and from that point on we are required to adopt an unprecedented level of suspicion, live in constant fear of attack and surrender whatever we have built as free peoples in order to preserve a lifestyle - a lifestyle that would vanish if the doctrine of unassailable individual freedoms were removed from society. The former is simply not true and the latter is unacceptable.

Canada's Minister of Public Safety, Stockwell Day produced the following line in response to the UK arrests:

Canada is not immune to the threat of terrorism. Canada has been on a list articulated by Osama Bin Laden a number of years ago.

As if Osama Bin Laden and Islamic fundamentalists are the exclusive purveyors of terrorism. It makes one wonder what rock this guy has been living under.

Prior to September 11th, 2001, the world's single deadliest attack involving civil aircraft and the largest mass murder in Canadian history was the inflight bombing of Air India flight 182 on 23 June, 1985. No matter how you paint that picture, it placed Canada on the terrorist gunplot before any attack by Osama Bin Laden had been perpetrated on the US. And, it was carried out, not by so-called Islamic fascists, but by militant Sikh separatists - the Babbar Khalsa. Canada was warned about the extreme likelihood of such an attack weeks before flight 182 exploded.

Prior to that, on October 5th, 1970, the Front de Liberation du Quebec (FLQ) kidnapped British trade commissioner James Cross. Five days later they kidnapped Quebec Labour minister Pierre Laporte and eventually murdered him. On October 16th, 1970, Pierre Trudeau invoked the War Measures Act effectively suspending the rights of every Canadian citizen and giving police unbridled powers of arrest. Despite the fact that the FLQ attack was the worst terrorist attack Canada had endured up to that time, the War Measures Act was eventually removed from Canadian law and Trudeau received strong criticism for excessive use of federal government power. Regardless, it was homegrown terrorism perpetrated, not by Islamic fascists but by Quebec Marxist separatists.

Those are just two events which underscore the fact that Canada, as for most other wealthy countries, has always had to live with terrorism. The uber-rightists who are shouting, "I told ya so!" are telling us nothing new. If it's new to them, it's because they haven't been paying attention.

The police and intelligence services intercepting a plot to commit an act of terrorism does not warrant us adopting a stance born out of fear. That would simply imply that terrorism, even when foiled, still wins.

And, while Stockwell Day, to his credit, suggested there was no need to tighten counter-terrorism legislation, I defy anybody to try and take a tube of toothpaste with you through airport security. There is a point where fear turns to madness.

If, however, you feel more comfortable hiding under your bed, fearing what your neighbour is doing at 2 am and spying on the local Mosque, please do so. I will only object when your paranoia starts to have an effect on me. And it starts to affect everyone when people start writing or uttering words like:

Round. Them. All. Up. And. Lock. Them. Away.

Really? Who? And under what canon of laws?

It should be pointed out that the British authorities yesterday and the Canadian authorities in June, thwarted any plot through good police work, solid intelligence collection and presumably through legal means. No torture, no extraordinary rendition, no illegal wiretapping, no unlawful confinement.

But, for those who think rounding up anyone who might remotely present a terrorist threat has any merit, they may be focussing on too narrow a group. As I pointed out earlier, terrorists are not restricted to a particular religious adherence, race, nationality or creed. Anybody can be considered a terrorist if they participate in certain questionable or illegal activities.

So, this is part 1 of a two part piece. Part 2 will be intended to make people squirm, and you may never view your dentist the same again.

In the meantime, if you really must engage in the hysteria of fear, breath into a bag for a while or take a pill, or something. Your chances of being killed by terrorists are not good.

"Iranians" found among Hezbollah dead

Oh, this can't be good.

Members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard have been found among Hizbollah guerrillas slain by Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, Israel's Channel 10 television reported on Wednesday citing diplomatic sources.

It said the Iranians were identified by documents found on their bodies, but gave no further details on how many were discovered or when. Neither the Israeli military nor Hizbollah representatives in Beirut had immediate comment on the report. (Emphasis mine)

Documents? What kind of documents? Were they carrying IRG identity cards? Maybe they had bus route maps of Tehran.

The timing of this is, shall we say, just a little suspicious. This looks like a ticket to a full-on offensive and a push to, as Billmon suggests, downtown Tehran.

The warbloggers will probably start frothing at the mouth over this any minute, if it weren't for one small detail - Reuters is the source and, well, the chickenhawks just don't trust Reuters anymore.

Something to keep in mind. The "documents" were "found" among the dead. Dead men don't speak Farsi, Arabic, Hebrew.....

How presidential of you - Steve

I truly hope a Canadian air force pilot from either this squadron or this squadron gets a Personnel Evaluation Report which recommends immediate promotion. After reading this little bit, it becomes obvious that His Royal Highness President the Canadian prime minister with the weakest minority government in Canadian history can't see past behaving like a tin-pot dictator of a banana-republic and a member of the Canadian Forces paid the price for it.

... on a recent trip, the Prime Minister was asked by a flight attendant to turn off his cellphone and BlackBerry. Mr. Harper declined. The pilot then made a request, saying it was for safety purposes. The PM relented. But, at the end of the journey, one of his staffers gave the pilot some news: His services would no longer be required on prime ministerial trips.

(Emphasis mine)

How... imperial of little Stevie.

Surely the little prick is aware that it is a hard and fast rule of flight safety that personal communications devices are not permitted to be operated during a flight to prevent interference with navigation equipment.

And, Harper's egotism does not trump the commander of the aircraft.

The Canadian Forces is under no obligation to observe Transport Canada regulations, however, safety on passenger flights meets or exceeds the rules laid out by Transport. Harper might want to have one of his flying monkeys look them up before exercising non-existent executive priviledge.

Be aware of which electronic devices are and are not allowed to be used during the flight. If you are unsure of the rules, consult a crew member.

Follow the instructions of the crew at all times and be respectful of them and the other passengers. It is illegal to behave in a threatening manner towards others on board the flight. Remember, everyone is entitled to travel in a safe and secure environment.

Too much for the whiney-assed-titty-baby who would be king.

Harper and his staff of donkeys owe an apology to the pilot in question, the crew of the aircraft, the squadron and the Canadian Forces in general, not to mention the Canadian public.

I hope the pilot requests redress of grievance for receiving unfair treatment as a result of doing the only thing he could do - operate his aircraft within the regulatory requirements of CF flight safety.

The next time Harper starts to blather on about the high-calling of CF personnel or how he supports the troops, we'll just remind him of this little episode.

Dawg's Blawg has more.

Changing horses in mid-war

When a general in command of a major operation is replaced it is normally for one of two reasons:

1. The general is not meeting the objectives set by the national leadership;
2. The general is experiencing some differences as regards to methods and means with the national leadership.

One thing is certain though, when a government replaces the head of a major operation, it is not going well.

IDF General Udi Adam seems to have managed to provide both reasons to IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz and short of being completely replaced, is effectively being demoted while IDF General Moshe Kaplinsky, currently IDF Deputy Chief of Staff, assumes the position as "headquarters representative" on the Israeli northern border.

Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky, deputy chief of staff and a veteran of earlier campaigns in Lebanon, was named to "coordinate the Israeli army's operations in Lebanon." He takes over for Gen. Udi Adam, who in his position as head of the Northern Command has run an offensive that some Israelis believe failed to deal a crippling blow to Hezbollah.

Israeli commentators suggested that Adam was demoted because he angered Olmert when he accused the political establishment of tying the hands of those prosecuting the war.

Actually, what Adam was complaining about was the fact that his troops are inadequately trained to fight a guerilla war against Hezbollah. He further complained that reserves were not called up immediately and that any attempt to mount a significant ground campaign without them would bear poor results.

It looks like he was completely accurate.

Adam has been accused of not prosecuting the war against Hezbollah with the traditional IDF vigour. In fact, when asked why he did not use tactical air to destroy the Hezbollah stronghold of Bint Jbail he explained that there were still civilians and a hospital operating in the town.

That wouldn't have gone down well with either Halutz nor Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Halutz is devoid of anything resembling a conscience and Olmert doesn't handle criticism well.

General Kaplinsky arrives on the scene with a good deal of Lebanon experience under his helmet, having been involved in earlier campaigns. He also has a reputation for ruthlessness and disdain for Arab civilians. In 2002, as commander of Israel's Central Command, which defends the west bank, he issued a decree which saw entire Arab villages in the occupied territory destroyed for "military needs".

In any case, Adam is now simply occupying a chair in Northern Command. Kaplinsky will now run operations. Expect to see an increase in activity, including a heavier use of air attacks.

Oh yeah. The body count, on both sides, will probably rise significantly.

Lieberman is toast!

Finally.... somebody turfed the Bush-licking sonofabitch. I truly hope he's out so fast that the door doesn't have a chance to hit him on the ass.

As much as I would like to write a long and scathing post about him and his kind, I couldn't possibly do better than Cathie From Canada.

... just one year ago, one grieving mother showed up Bush for a fool. Then a drowned city showed up the heartlessness of the whole Bush administration, the guys who had talked so big about being the grown-ups. Americans became increasingly uncomfortable about being spied on by incompetent religious zealots. After a century of thinking of themselves as the good guys, Americans also became increasingly uncomfortable about finding themselves on the bad guy side of torture and secret prisons and Guantanamo and judicial toadying and planted news stories. The Bush administration still hasn't found Bin Laden, and they still haven't won in Afghanistan. Finally -- and unforgiveably as far as Americans are concerned -- the Bush administration has blustered and talked big but has proven itself incapable of actually controlling or even influencing North Korea, or Venezuela , or Hezbollah, or Hamas, or Iran, or Israel. And the one country that America has tried to take control of directly, Iraq, has disintegrated into a grotesque horror show...

And Lieberman was party to it all.

Now, this incredible turkey plans to run as an independent.

Good luck, Joe. Start checking your wife's purse and robbing your grandkids' piggy banks because I have a tingling feeling that your donation pool just dried up.

Smoke, mirrors and deception - The Conservative way

I was more than a little surprized when I read this in the G&M this morning.

The Conservative government has used an extraordinary “national security” clause to take control of $8-billion in recently announced military spending, allowing it to dole out contracts to the West, Quebec and the Atlantic.

The federal government lost the power to steer contract work to specific parts of the country with the 1994 signing of the Agreement on Internal Trade with the provinces. But as part of the continuing purchase of new planes and helicopters, the government has decided to invoke a national-security exception (NSE), which effectively removes these contracts from reach of the agreement.

So much for honest and transparent government. This is dishonesty at its height. There is no national security imperative and it renders down to opportunistic manipulation by government in an attempt to hide the truth. This kind of maneouvre opens the door to any number of perils from heavy lobbying to possible corruption in the awarding of contracts.

For an excellent analysis, take in Accidental Deliberations post on it.

And for even more of what we already knew to be true it's worth reading Ted's tax story at Cerberus. Considering Stevie Harper said this:

I understand that not everyone is lucky enough to be born into a rich family, to attend private schools, or to live an international lifestyle," he said. "Instead, millions upon millions of people wake up each and every morning, and get ahead the Canadian way. By working hard, by saving a bit of money, by doing the best they can to make the right decisions for themselves and their families, these people are our people.

He might want to explain why he stiffed the unwashed masses, "his people", with a tax increase.

At the going down of the Sun, and in the morning...

With respect and condolences to the family and friends of Master Cpl. Raymond Arndt, Loyal Edmonton Regiment.

Fears no foe

It's not a civil war, even when they start forming their own armies.

It's not a civil war. Ask anybody who doesn't want it to be one. But, when Tareq al-Hashemi, the Vice-President of Iraq utilizes the Iraqi National Guard as a front to create a Sunni militia in an effort to combat the Shiite dominated Iraqi security forces, you should at least call it something.

From The Times Online: (emphasis mine)

AMERICAN and Iraqi troops fought a pitched battle with one of Baghdad’s most powerful Shia militias yesterday as they sought to seize control of the capital back from sectarian death squads and criminal gangs.

But as 3,700 extra US troops were deployed on the streets of Baghdad its terrified citizens, having lost faith in the Iraqi security forces, are forming their own militias.

The Times learnt yesterday that Tareq al-Hashemi, Iraq’s Sunni Vice-President, is forming a unit of the National Guard that will act as his personal bodyguard and fend off attacks against Addumiyah, a Sunni district surrounded by overwhelmingly Shia districts.

It will be the first official Sunni militia group and a counter to security forces that have been heavily infiltrated by Shia militias.

[...]

A young Sunni from west Baghdad, who refused to be identified, said that recruiting had already started for Mr al-Hashemi’s group. The initial aim was to sign up 350 former army personnel who are to be trained as part of the Defence Ministry, which will also outfit and arm them. They were being offered $700 a month.

“We all know the Shia are recruiting in their districts across the city, firstly to kill Sunnis and secondly to divide the country,” said the 26-year-old man, who said that his shop had been closed after Shia militiamen within the police force issued death threats against him and other Sunni shopkeepers in west Baghdad.

“It’ll be called a personal security guard unit for Tareq al-Hashemi to give it official cover and secure funding, but on the ground it’ll be a Sunni militia,” said the source, who is thinking of signing up.

No civil war.

OK. Let's try this then.

Israel's shotgun approach

The success of a military mission, to a significant degree, depends on the quality and amount of intelligence provided to the mission commander. If the intelligence is faulty or just plain wrong, the chance of a mission succeeding is severely diminished. If a mission leader ignores the intelligence provided for the mission, failure is nearly guaranteed.

So, what's happened with Israel? Given that the IDF Chief of Staff, Lt-Gen Dan Halutz, suggested he would eliminate the Hezbollah rocket threat within 10 days of the start of Israeli air-strikes into Lebanon, something must have gone terribly awry. This Wednesday will mark a complete month of Israeli military action against targets in Lebanon and still Hezbollah rockets rain down on northern Israeli towns.

The Israeli air campaign, which has managed to kill approximately 900 people, most of whom were civilians, has been ineffective in halting Hezbollah's rocket war.

Why? Because the Israelis don't know where Hezbollah's rockets are.

In May of 2000, when Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon, after almost two decades of occupation, they were shocked when the South Lebanese Army, a militia loyal to Israel, collapsed within two days. They had underestimated Hezbollah's strength and position. It was an intelligence failure of the first order and something of an intelligence coup for Hezbollah.

Today, it would appear the same thing is happening. Israel, relying on advanced technology and overwhelming air power, cannot locate and destroy Hezbollah's forces, and it's causing more than a little concern amongst members of the IDF. For one thing, Israeli Air Force pilots are starting to question the intelligence which identifies their targets and a few are starting to pull their punches.

At least two Israeli fighter pilots have deliberately missed civilian targets in Lebanon as disquiet grows in the military about flawed intelligence, The Observer has learnt. Sources say the pilots were worried that targets had been wrongly identified as Hizbollah facilities.

If that story is true it demonstrates a level of reticence within the IDF to bombing targets without clear intelligence. What was supposed to be no more than a two week operation is becoming protracted and the pilots releasing the bombs are questioning the quality of the intelligence used in making target selections.

If there is any real intelligence at all.

The fact that Hezbollah rocket attacks continue seemingly unabated would suggest that Israel may be shooting in the dark.

As one well-connected Israeli expert put it: 'If we have such good information in Lebanon, how come we still don't know the hideout of missiles and launchers?... If we don't know the location of their weapons, why should we know which house is a Hizbollah house?'

Indeed. And if they aren't able to determine precise targets that makes the Israeli air campaign little more than a "shotgun approach" to dealing with Hezbollah. If you can't find the bad guy, shoot up everything you can and you'll eventually get the bad guy. Boris spelled it out quite nicely here.

The IDF seems to have been engulfed in the belief that military air, in isolation, possessed the power to neutralize Hezbollah. The air force receives 60 percent of the military budget which has put a strain on the other two services. The army was required to pare back its training tempo and the armoured corps, a mainstay of the army, was reduced in size. Armoured corps reservists, required to train one month per year were not even seeing the inside of a tank. All of this was based on the dismissal by military intelligence of the likelihood of another conventional ground war against Israel. In short, Israel fell into the "air alone can win a war" trap.

Like all nations who go down that road and place all their faith in technology, they failed to assess the weaknesses of air power. The greatest of those weaknesses being that air strikes require high-grade intelligence to direct the pilot and the weapon to the proper target. And clearly, the intelligence isn't there, because if it was, the rockets which keep finding their way to northern Israel would have stopped long ago.

Israel has so much as admitted that its air campaign has failed as it launches an extensive ground campaign to seek out and destroy Hezbollah's stock of Katyusha rockets. It is now faced with another problem. It's army is much less prepared for a fight than it needs to be to take on Hezbollah. It's training is left wanting and it lacks the appropriate equipment.

And, then there is the fact that the Israeli Air Force has already made a mockery of the Purity Of Arms value of the IDF Code of Ethics. The army can either behave the same way or attempt to regain some semblance of morality in their actions.

In any case, it appears the IDF relied less on good intelligence and more on the effect of less than accurate bombing in an attempt to bring Hezbollah to heel. All they have done is incur the wrath of the civilized world and driven large numbers of the Lebanese population into the arms of Hezbollah.

Bush is a DECIDER - not a LISTENER

In a less than shocking revelation, Peter Galbraith, former US ambassador to Croatia claims that George W Bush was unaware of the existence of two distinct sects of Muslims in Iraq, right up to the short period before the US invasion.

In his new book, The End of Iraq: How American Incompetence Created A War Without End, Galbraith, the son of the late economist John Kenneth Galbraith, claims that American leadership knew very little about the nature of Iraqi society and the problems it would face after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.

A year after his “Axis of Evil” speech before the U.S. Congress, President Bush met with three Iraqi Americans, one of whom became postwar Iraq’s first representative to the United States. The three described what they thought would be the political situation after the fall of Saddam Hussein. During their conversation with the President, Galbraith claims, it became apparent to them that Bush was unfamiliar with the distinction between Sunnis and Shiites.

Galbraith reports that the three of them spent some time explaining to Bush that there are two different sects in Islam--to which the President allegedly responded, “I thought the Iraqis were Muslims!”

As one of the commenters over at The Carpetbagger Report said:

... Bush didn't do his homework in school, why would he do his homework on the job.

Cathie also has a view on the whole issue:

Bush didn't know the difference between a Shiite and a Sunni Muslim a month before the Iraq invasion. Well, neither did I, of course, but then I'm not the President of the United States.... (emphasis mine)

After watching this buffoon operate for the past 5.5 years, this should hardly be considered a surprize. Bush is a moron. The supposed common, straw-chewin', down-to-earth, inarticulate facade is, in fact, the real Bush. How that went unrecognized by so much of the US population for so long is the real mystery.

But, why didn't Bush know about the difference between Shi'ia and Sunni? Why couldn't he gather in that Iraq could easily turn into the nightmare which is today's reality?

Because he doesn't listen and his staff insulates him from the truth. The truth was out there and the advice was solid. In fact, one source, which was dismissed, had all the experience and wisdom of somebody who had been there. The American people should have paid attention, not because of what the source was saying, but because what the source was saying was being ignored. The source, after all, was one of the more popular heros in modern American culture. He broke through the Viet Nam syndrome.

"I have picked up vibes that . . . you're going to have this massive strike with massed weaponry, and basically that's going to be it, and we just clean up the battlefield after that."

[...]

"What is postwar Iraq going to look like, with the Kurds and the Sunnis and the Shiites? That's a huge question, to my mind. It really should be part of the overall campaign plan."

Said General H Norman Schwarzkopf before Bush invaded Iraq. He also said this after Rumsfeld suggested there was a lot of planning going on for the occupation, all of which centered around Iraqis greeting American troops with flowers and candies:

"I would hope that we have in place the adequate resources to become an army of occupation," he warns, "because you're going to walk into chaos."

And that's exactly what Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld and his corps of military-service-evading neocons did. And then, through their own ignorance and arrogance, made it worse.

They didn't listen then and they're not listening now. Combine that with the fact that Bush is truly a dimwit and you now have the most dangerous US presidency in history. The type that starts world wars and thinks it can win.

The economist speaks

Sandra Buckler Steve Harper, seems to think Canadians are too stupid to see through the smoke.

In an attempt to backtrack on his position declaring Israel's actions in Lebanon, "measured", he provided this to a Quebec radio station.

Now we have a completely different situation from three weeks ago, as I've said many times. We have a full blown conflict, almost a war, and it's hard to say whether a response is proportional to another. It's a war

So, is it a war or almost a war?

And, what's different? This was the US/Israeli plan all along.

Or, was our little Stevie too stupid or too wrapped up in himself to actually see it?

It must be tough to keep spouting the White House line when he's not in regular touch with his hero.

Billmon nailed it.

Bonus link: Alison pulled a good one from the Star.

At the going down of the Sun, and in the morning...

With respect and condolences to the family and friends of Pte. Kevin Dallaire, Sgt. Vaughn Ingram, Cpl. Bryce Jeffrey Keller and Cpl. Christopher Jonathan Reid, 1st Battalion, Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry.

Strawberry Days

David Niewert's book, Strawberry Days will be the topic of Firedoglake's Sunday book salon August 6th. The host will be blogger Rev from The Woodshed whom regular readers will recognize from the comments section of various posts here at TGB.

David, who runs the great blog, Orcinus, wrote Strawberry Days, the story of the internment of Japanese-Americans in the Bellevue, Washington area, from interviews with internees and their descendants. I haven't yet read it but Rev has done a review which I would highly recommend - then go and buy the book.

The Rev summarizes:

Strawberry Days is an extreme close up of the effect the internment had on the Bellevue, Washington area, David's journalistic home turf more or less. He started out interviewing internees and their descendants back when he was in the newspaper biz and the book grew out of that. It is insightful, exceptionally well sourced and researched and damn compelling read.

Given the times and the fact that Canada enacted the same process in locking up citizens of Japanese origin, the story could easily be transferred from Bellevue to a place like Steveston, British Columbia, where another vibrant and thriving community was destroyed.

So, join the Rev at Firedoglake, Sunday, August 6th at 5pm Eastern/2pm Pacific for what should be a lively and interesting live-hosted event. As Rev says, you can expect there will be a lot of talking "about the abuse of executive powers during wartime, illegal suspension of civil liberties, racism and xenophobia".

The NORAD tapes... 9/11

Michael Bronner, writing in Vanity Fair, has compiled the critical moments from 30 hours of tape recorded operations from the NORAD Northeast headquarters on the day of the attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

The story is one of confusion and an immediate unwillingness to believe that an attack was actually taking place. Understandably, it took time to gather in the enormity of what was happenning.

Atrios provides some excellent commentary.

There was no command given to shoot down United Flight 93, despite implications to the contrary made by Vice President Cheney. Cheney was not notified about the possibility that United 93 had been hijacked until 10:02 a.m.—only one minute before the airliner impacted the ground. And United 93 had crashed before anyone in the military chain of command even knew it had been hijacked. President Bush did not grant commanders the authority to give a shoot-down order until 10:18 a.m., which—though no one knew it at the time—was 15 minutes after the attack was over.

And, as for the general theory that Flight 93 was shot down...

When Bronner asks Lieutenant Colonel Kevin Nasypany, NEADS mission control commander, about the conspiracy theories—the people who believe that he, or someone like him, secretly ordered the shootdown of United 93 and covered it up—the corners of his mouth begin to quiver and he puts his head in his hands and cries. “Flight 93 was not shot down,” he says. “The individuals on that aircraft, the passengers, they actually took the aircraft down. Because of what those people did, I didn’t have to do anything.”

Bronner's article is captivating and each transcript is provided with the real voice recording of the action.

(H/T reader Cat)

Ball bearing missiles or cluster bombs. Pick the good weapon.

Canadian Cynic picked up on this article which has the entire Israeli cheerleading squad pissing their pants.

The rockets Hezbollah is raining down on Haifa and much of northern Israel are distinctly different from the Soviet-built katyushas of earlier wars, Israeli officials say.
Instead of standard military fragmentation warheads – deadly enough – Hezbollah's rockets are packed with thousands of tiny ball-bearings, which burst out from the warhead in every direction like so many bullets.

And, it goes on.

The curious thing about this article however, is that its objectivity is more than a little questionable. The author, for one thing, is less a reporter and more an extreme right-wing political activist than most people may understand.

Kenneth R. Timmerman, who wrote the article for NewsMax, is not an objective journalist. He is a connected Republican and neo-con. In 2000 he made a bid for the Maryland Republican nomination in a run for a Senate seat. He didn't make it past the primaries.

NewsMax promotes Timmerman as a Middle East expert. That description should raise an immediate suspicion in any rational person. There simply is no such thing outside the natives of the Middle East.

But Timmerman, a prolific right-wing author, has been called into question on other earth-shaking revelations in his journalistic products. In this March 2006 article he announced that North Korea had delivered Russian-made nuclear missiles to Iran, citing Jane's Defense Weekly as a source.

Except that Jane's didn't say that at all. In fact Jane's provided that Iran had acquired 40 year-old SS-N-6 SLBM from North Korea. There was no mention of warheads in either the subscriber or non-subscriber version. There was however, a statement that the SS-N-6 is a complicated missile, difficult to copy and not in keeping with Iran's current defense efforts.

Timmerman's article was long on assumptions and short on actual facts. NewsHog delved a little further and received an answer from Jane's which clearly stated that they had not discussed warheads at all and indicated that Timmerman had misquoted their article.

It gets better. Anyone who has seen the movie Syriana might recall an organization which figured prominently in the film - The Foundation for Democracy in Iran. It's not a part of the fiction of that movie. The organization exists and its founder and executive director is none other than Kenneth R. Timmerman. The FDI has one objective - regime change in Iran, by any means necessary.

Just to get an even clearer picture of Timmerman, there's this little tidbit from NewsHog as well:

More surprising, perhaps - and not mentioned in any official bio - is his presence on the Advisory Board of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA) - an honor he currently shares with Rep. Eric Cantor, Michael Ledeen, Jack Kemp and Richard Perle. Past Board members include Vice President Dick Cheney, US ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, and Undersecretary of Defence for policy Douglas Feith. A heady and powerful grouping. JINSA, it has been alleged, is closely allied to neoconservative advocates of pre-emptive regime change...

Hardly someone who could be relied upon to provide an objective report.

Oh yes. Something Timmerman didn't report. The resultant casualties from the so-called Hezbollah "ball-bearing" missiles are minimal when compared to number of civilian casualties suffered by Lebanon at the hands of Israeli munitions.

If Hezbollah is using a shrapnel anti-personnel weapon against civilian targets they are wrong. No question about that. And, given the poor accuracy of the rockets they are using, it amounts to indiscriminant attacks with no consideration for the safety of non-combatants.

It would be the same as Israel using inaccurate cluster munitions against targets in Lebanon. Something Timmerman didn't include in his report.

But these guys did.

Brazil to deport illegal immigrants to Antarctica

Not many people are aware of Brazil's illegal immigrant problem. It's been kept quiet for decades even though each year more and more of the same immigrants show up by trying to sneak across Rio De Janeiro's beaches unnoticed.

Some say global warming has a lot to do with it. Others have suggested the immigrants are drawn to Rio's beaches because of the natives.

Brazil has decided that more direct action is required. Rather than lock up the illegals, as has often happened in the past, the government will now round them up, put them on a Brazilian air force plane and ship them to southern Brazil. From there, the Brazilian navy will transport them to Antarctica.

The immigrants shouldn't be too fussed about it. They are used to the cold. Most penguins are.