Hurricane Karl 17/1300Z. Hurricane Warning for Mexico

Hurricane Karl strengthened remarkably through Thursday to become a Category 3 cyclone. It's position at 1200Z (7 am CDT) was 50 miles (80 km) Northeast of Veracruz, 150 miles Southeast of Tuxpan on the east coast of Mexico. The hurricane is tracking due West at 8 knots (15 kmh/9 mph) which would put landfall for the centre of the system about 5 hours away.

The east coast of Mexico is already getting the Tropical Storm force winds and moisture from Karl. The estimated maximum sustained winds are 105 knots (195 kmh/121 mph).

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the east coast of Mexico from Veracruz to Cabo Rjo. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watch is in effect for the east coast of Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to La Cruz and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the east coast of Mexico from south of Veracruz to Punta El Largardo.

Aside from extreme winds, Karl will release large quantities of moisture in the form of torrential rains. Hurricane force winds are estimated to extend outward 25 miles (40 km) from the centre. Tropical Storm force winds have a radius of about 105 miles (170 km).

A destructive storm surge of up to 4.6 meters (15 feet) should be expected along the coast accompanied by violent waves.











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Hurricanes Igor and Julia. Tropical Storm Karl. 16/1300Z

Hurricane Alley has a story this morning and it's Tropical Storm Karl. The cyclone emerged from the Yucatan virtually intact and about 30 miles (50 km) south of the original forecast. Karl moved over the Bay of Campeche to be met by less than 5 knots of wind shear and sea surface temperatures that in some spots are higher than 30 degrees C. All conditions are very favourable for rapid intensification and there is little doubt that Karl will grow very rapidly to become a hurricane over the next 12 - 36 hours.

Karl is currently located in the southeastern section of the Bay of Campeche tracking West-Northwest at about 8 knots (15 kmh/9 mph) with sustained winds showing an initial intensity of 55 knots (102 kmh/63 mph).

Hurricane Watches have been issued for the east coast of Mexico from La Cruz southward to Palma Sola. Karl is forecast to be near the Mexican coast as a hurricane late Thursday or early Friday. Hurricane Warnings will likely be issued for that same coast later today.

Hurricane Igor intensified over night with sustained winds of 125 knots (232 kmh/144 mph). It remains a Category 4 cyclone presently located about 440 miles (710 km) East-Northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and 955 miles (1535 km) South-Southeast of Bermuda. The hurricane is tracking West-Northwest at about 6 knots (11 kmh/7 mph).

Igor is in an area of low wind shear and high sea surface temperatures which support the cyclone remaining a very dangerous hurricane for the next few days. Igor is expected to recurve as it moves around the subtropical ridge. The threat to Bermuda is increasing.

Hurricane Julia is weakening as it feels the effect of divergence from Igor. Upper level wind shear is increasing and Julia is entering an area of cooler water. It should start to gradually weaken in the next 24 hours and thereafter experience a more rapid decay.

Julia is located about 875 miles (1410 km) West-Northwest of the Cape Verde Islands and assumed to be tracking northwest at about 16 knots (30 kmh/18 mph). Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 90 knots (167 kmh/104 mph) with decreasing intensity as it moves along its track.

Julia is a threat to shipping but currently poses no danger to populated land areas.

The satellite image below shows all three Atlantic cyclones: Karl to the left, Igor in the centre right and Julia off to the extreme right. (As always, click on any image to enlarge).

Hurricanes Igor and Julia. Tropical Storm Karl. 15/1500Z

Igor has weakened slightly this morning, Julia handed us all a surprise by strengthening to Category 4 and Karl has made landfall in the Yucatan.

Hurricane Igor is a massive Cat 4 cyclone with a wind field that stretches about 550 miles (885 km) across. Currently located about 540 miles (870 km) East-Northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and about 1050 miles (1700 km) Southeast of Bermuda, Igor is tracking West-Northwest at about 7 knots (13 kmh/8 mph). After pushing to the top of the Cat 4 scale last night there was some weakening overnight. The cloud tops have showed some warming and the inner eyewall has shown some deterioration. An outer eyewall has formed and while this normally weakens a cyclone, Igor is not expected to weaken much more over the next day or two. Sustained wind speeds are estimated at 115 knots (213 kmh/132 mph) with considerably higher gusts.

It is still too early to make landfall predictions although more and more it appears Bermuda could wear the brunt of Igor.

Hurricane Julia suddenly increased in intensity last night giving forecasters and some of the models a surprise. The cyclone moved quickly to a Cat 4 storm. Julia is currently located 595 miles (955 km) West-Northwest of the Cape Verde Islands tracking in a Northwesterly direction at about 13 knots (24 kmh/15 mph). It has sustained winds of 115 knots (213 kmh/132 mph). Although well developed, Julia is starting to the feel the effects of Igor's outflow winds and shear from an upper air low. It will soon start to encounter lower sea surface temperatures which will begin to cause weakening sometime in the next 24 - 48 hours.

This cyclone presents an extreme risk to shipping but currently presents no threat to population.

Tropical Storm Karl spawned rapidly and powerfully from a depression to a well organized tropical storm. Low wind shear and high sea surface temperatures fed this system and the forecast now suggests that Karl, having made its first landfall on the eastern Yucatan will eventually restrengthen over the Bay of Campeche to a Category 1 Hurricane before making a second landfall somewhere on the east coast of Mexico. Karl's landfall was just north of Belize at 1245Z (UTC/GMT) with estimated winds of 55 knots (102 kmh/63 mph). Because Karl is not a large system there is a possibility that its deterioration over the Yucatan will hamper its development once it moves out into the Bay of Campeche, however, the conditions are ripe to feed this system as it can once again move from a depression to a hurricane.


Click on images to enlarge.

Tropical Storm Karl

Add one more to the mix. The US National Hurricane Center hasn't issued anything publicly at the time of writing but the US Navy Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center has named the disturbance in the western Caribbean Tropical Storm Karl.

This system located about 300 miles east of Chetumal Mexico and is tracking West-Northwest at about 13 knots (24 kmh/15 mph).

Expect Tropical Storm warnings to be issued for the Yucatan, Belize, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and Cuba.