Tropical Storms Matthew and Lisa 24/1400Z

I have reversed those two cyclones alphabetically because of the inherent threats each one represents. TS Lisa has been with us for a while but remains a weak system and presents less risk to population. Matthew developed overnight and is now the subject of Hurricane Warnings and Watches in Central America.

Tropical Storm Matthew is something of a guessing game at the moment. Track models vary significantly. Because of this the intensity forecast is also very thready since the route Matthew takes will have an effect on its intensity.

Matthew has been given an initial intensity of 45 knots (83 kmh/52 mph) keeping it well below hurricane strength for the time being. It is located 170 miles (275 km) East-Southeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border, tracking in a westerly direction at 14 knots (26 kmh/16 mph). The cyclone will probably track West-Northwest and slow somewhat over the next day or two. After that the official forecast is that this cyclone will start to track North into the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC gives that forecast a low confidence. None of the intensity models have Matthew becoming a hurricane before making landfall however, caution suggests that hurricane preparations for Nicaragua and Honduras are prudent.

Hurricane Warnings are flying for Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua to Limon Honduras including the offshore islands.
Hurricane Watch is in effect for the coast of Belize.
Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Limon Honduras westward to the Guatemala border.

Tropical Storm Lisa presents no threat to population although there is some risk to shipping. Located about 295 miles (475 km) Northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, Lisa is tracking Northeastward at 4 knots (7 kmh/5 mph). Max sustained winds are 35 knots (65 kmh/40 mph).

Lisa is expected to move northward and weaken as it comes under the influence of increased wind shear.

Hurricane Igor 21/1400Z

Igor remains a Cat 1 Hurricane as the centre approaches the coast of Newfoundland. At 0930 NDT Igor was 155 miles (290 km) South-Southwest of Cape Race tracking Northeast at 35 knots (65 kmh). Given that movement at the time of this report the southeast coast of Newfoundland will be at the closest point of approach of the tropical cyclone. Igor still has winds of 65 knots (120 kmh/75 mph) with expected increases to a sustained 75 knots.

Heavy rains have already fallen in many areas and Sagona Island and St. Pierre have reported hurricane-force gusts.

Hurricane watches are issued for coastal Newfoundland from Stones Cove northward and eastward to Fogo Island.

Tropical Storm Warnings are issued for coastal Newfoundland from Burgeo northward and eastward to Triton; Islands of St. Pierre and Miquelon.

There was an expectation that this cyclone would have made the transition to extra-tropical by this time (developing a frontal pattern) however this has been slow and there has been some new pockets of convection developing ahead of the centre. While Igor has lost many of its tropical characteristics, it remains a tropical cyclone until it transitions probably later on this evening.

Some areas under warnings and watches should expect hurricane-force winds and also extremely heavy rainfall. Great quantities of moisture will be released by Igor in a very short time.

New Gower Street, St. John's webcam.

George Street, St. John's CBC webcam.

And just so the entertainment doesn't end, Tropical Storm Lisa has emerged in the tropical eastern Atlantic.


Click any image to enlarge.

Hurricane Igor 20/1500Z

Hurricane Igor gave Bermuda a serious pummeling yesterday evening with the centre passing just a little over 40 miles to the west of the island. Correspondents reported widespread power outages and several storm related injuries at the island's medical facilities. Bermuda is well used to hurricanes and the stringent building codes minimize the losses due to storms.

Igor has accelerated its forward motion and started a northeastward recurve. The deep convection associated with tropical cyclones has started to wane. Located about 900 miles (1450 km) Southwest of Cape Race, NFLD, Igor is now tracking in a North-Northeasterly direction at 21 knots (39 kmh/24 mph). It has max sustained winds of 65 knots or less (120 kmh/75 mph). As Igor transitions to an extra-tropical cyclone is now presents a threat to coastal Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

High winds and heavy rains can be expected along the southeast coasts of both provinces with occasional intense squalls.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Newfoundland from Stones Cove northward and westward to Jones Harbour.

This should make iceberg alley a really interesting place to be.

Hurricane Igor 19/1530Z

Hurricane Igor is within range of Bermuda with stations and correspondents reporting hurricane force winds already. In many places the power has been out for several hours. Igor is the only remaining hurricane in the Atlantic and remains a powerful cyclone.

At 1500Z (UTC/GMT) the centre of Igor was located 135 miles (220 km) South-Southwest of Bermuda tracking North at 14 knots (26 kmh/16 mph).

Igor's eyewall has collapsed and there is considerable weakening, however it remains a Category 1 Hurricane and is forecast to remain so for the next few days. Igor has max sustained winds of 75 knots (139 kmh/86 mph) with gusts to 95 knots.

Igor should start to make another turn after passing Bermuda. It will likely accelerate in a Northeasterly direction and will begin to transition to an extra-tropical cyclone. It will continue to remain a hurricane for some time and is forecast to be at Cat 1 strength as it passes Cape Race, Newfoundland.

Bermuda weather radar at 1520Z. Image BWS (Webcam!)

Click on any image to enlarge.

Hurricane Igor and Tropical Storm Julia 18/1400Z

Hurricane Igor has weakened over the past 24 hours and is now placed at the top end of the Category 2 scale. Igor has estimated maximum sustained winds of 95 knots (175 kmh/110 mph) with higher gusts.
At 0900Z (UTC/GMT) the cyclone was located about 475 miles (765 km) South of Bermuda tracking Northwest at 11 knots (20 kmh/13 mph).
Igor will probably restrengthen to Category 3 over the next 24 hours and then gradually weaken, Igor is a massive cyclone and Bermuda lies directly in the forecast path. The official CPA of Igor's centre to Bermuda is 10 miles. Within the bounds of storm forecasting, that is a direct hit.

Hurricane Warnings are up for Bermuda. Bermudians can expect a long assault by Igor. Hurricane force winds extend out to 90 nautical miles (105 miles/165 km) in some quadrants. Tropical Storm force conditions can be expected by this evening Bermuda time and Hurricane force winds no later than Sunday evening but likely in the afternoon. It will then be a long haul for Bermuda as Igor passes and Bermudians should be prepared for 24 hours of Tropical Storm conditions, 8 hours (or more) of which will be Hurricane conditions.

Tropical Storm Julia weakened as expected and is now carrying sustained winds of 50 knots (93 kmh/58 mph). The cyclone is located 1525 miles (2450 km) West-Southwest of the Azores. It is tracking Northwest at 16 knots (30 kmh/18 mph). Julia is expected to weaken fairly rapidly due to high shear and much cooler sea surface temperatures in its path. This cyclone continues to constitute a risk to shipping although it poses no threat to populated areas.


A tropical wave located off the Cape Verde Islands has shown some significant development and is being closely watched. Invest 94L.

Hurricanes Igor and Julia 17/1400Z. Hurricane Watch for Bermuda

Hurricane Igor weakened slightly to become a "top of the scale" Category 3 cyclone. Depending upon what impresses you about natural meteorological/oceanographic phenomena, the size of Igor is amazing at about 1000 miles (1600 km) across its entire wind field.

Igor is about 730 miles (1175 km) South-Southeast of Bermuda tracking Northwest at about 8 knots (15 kmh/9 mph). It has maximum sustained winds of about 105 knots (195 kmh/121 mph). The present motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours and then the cyclone should recurve to the North-Northwest. The forecast track from most models agree and Bermuda is likely to get anywhere from Tropical Storm force effects to those of a direct hit in about 2 to 3 days time. Igor's forecast track keeps it in warm water and a light shear environment so any significant weakening will not likely occur for a few days yet. There is a bit of dry air to the west of it, but the cyclone's size and strength will ward off that effect.

As Igor passed ocean buoy 41044 wave heights of 35.8 feet (11 meters) were recorded.

Bermuda is on Hurricane Watch with the centre of Igor approaching on Sunday morning. Correspondent in Bermuda states that the local marketplace was jammed with people stocking up supplies and that people were charging up electronic devices in preparation for power outages.

Hurricane Julia is behaving pretty much as forecast. It is slowly weakening due to the influence of wind shear. There will be greater influence on Julia from the outflow pattern of Igor which will cause further deterioration. Julia continues to present a risk to shipping with 75 knot (140 kmh/86 mph) winds. Position is about 1450 miles (2330 km) Southwest of the Azores tracking West-Northwest at about 21 knots (39 kmh/24 mph) although a traditional recurve is evident in its track. Julia is being steered by an upper level ridge. It should start tracking to the northeast as it passed around the western edge.
Julia poses no threat to population at this time.

Click any image to enlarge.

Hurricane Karl 17/1300Z. Hurricane Warning for Mexico

Hurricane Karl strengthened remarkably through Thursday to become a Category 3 cyclone. It's position at 1200Z (7 am CDT) was 50 miles (80 km) Northeast of Veracruz, 150 miles Southeast of Tuxpan on the east coast of Mexico. The hurricane is tracking due West at 8 knots (15 kmh/9 mph) which would put landfall for the centre of the system about 5 hours away.

The east coast of Mexico is already getting the Tropical Storm force winds and moisture from Karl. The estimated maximum sustained winds are 105 knots (195 kmh/121 mph).

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the east coast of Mexico from Veracruz to Cabo Rjo. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watch is in effect for the east coast of Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to La Cruz and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the east coast of Mexico from south of Veracruz to Punta El Largardo.

Aside from extreme winds, Karl will release large quantities of moisture in the form of torrential rains. Hurricane force winds are estimated to extend outward 25 miles (40 km) from the centre. Tropical Storm force winds have a radius of about 105 miles (170 km).

A destructive storm surge of up to 4.6 meters (15 feet) should be expected along the coast accompanied by violent waves.











Click images to enlarge.

Hurricanes Igor and Julia. Tropical Storm Karl. 16/1300Z

Hurricane Alley has a story this morning and it's Tropical Storm Karl. The cyclone emerged from the Yucatan virtually intact and about 30 miles (50 km) south of the original forecast. Karl moved over the Bay of Campeche to be met by less than 5 knots of wind shear and sea surface temperatures that in some spots are higher than 30 degrees C. All conditions are very favourable for rapid intensification and there is little doubt that Karl will grow very rapidly to become a hurricane over the next 12 - 36 hours.

Karl is currently located in the southeastern section of the Bay of Campeche tracking West-Northwest at about 8 knots (15 kmh/9 mph) with sustained winds showing an initial intensity of 55 knots (102 kmh/63 mph).

Hurricane Watches have been issued for the east coast of Mexico from La Cruz southward to Palma Sola. Karl is forecast to be near the Mexican coast as a hurricane late Thursday or early Friday. Hurricane Warnings will likely be issued for that same coast later today.

Hurricane Igor intensified over night with sustained winds of 125 knots (232 kmh/144 mph). It remains a Category 4 cyclone presently located about 440 miles (710 km) East-Northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and 955 miles (1535 km) South-Southeast of Bermuda. The hurricane is tracking West-Northwest at about 6 knots (11 kmh/7 mph).

Igor is in an area of low wind shear and high sea surface temperatures which support the cyclone remaining a very dangerous hurricane for the next few days. Igor is expected to recurve as it moves around the subtropical ridge. The threat to Bermuda is increasing.

Hurricane Julia is weakening as it feels the effect of divergence from Igor. Upper level wind shear is increasing and Julia is entering an area of cooler water. It should start to gradually weaken in the next 24 hours and thereafter experience a more rapid decay.

Julia is located about 875 miles (1410 km) West-Northwest of the Cape Verde Islands and assumed to be tracking northwest at about 16 knots (30 kmh/18 mph). Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 90 knots (167 kmh/104 mph) with decreasing intensity as it moves along its track.

Julia is a threat to shipping but currently poses no danger to populated land areas.

The satellite image below shows all three Atlantic cyclones: Karl to the left, Igor in the centre right and Julia off to the extreme right. (As always, click on any image to enlarge).

Hurricanes Igor and Julia. Tropical Storm Karl. 15/1500Z

Igor has weakened slightly this morning, Julia handed us all a surprise by strengthening to Category 4 and Karl has made landfall in the Yucatan.

Hurricane Igor is a massive Cat 4 cyclone with a wind field that stretches about 550 miles (885 km) across. Currently located about 540 miles (870 km) East-Northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and about 1050 miles (1700 km) Southeast of Bermuda, Igor is tracking West-Northwest at about 7 knots (13 kmh/8 mph). After pushing to the top of the Cat 4 scale last night there was some weakening overnight. The cloud tops have showed some warming and the inner eyewall has shown some deterioration. An outer eyewall has formed and while this normally weakens a cyclone, Igor is not expected to weaken much more over the next day or two. Sustained wind speeds are estimated at 115 knots (213 kmh/132 mph) with considerably higher gusts.

It is still too early to make landfall predictions although more and more it appears Bermuda could wear the brunt of Igor.

Hurricane Julia suddenly increased in intensity last night giving forecasters and some of the models a surprise. The cyclone moved quickly to a Cat 4 storm. Julia is currently located 595 miles (955 km) West-Northwest of the Cape Verde Islands tracking in a Northwesterly direction at about 13 knots (24 kmh/15 mph). It has sustained winds of 115 knots (213 kmh/132 mph). Although well developed, Julia is starting to the feel the effects of Igor's outflow winds and shear from an upper air low. It will soon start to encounter lower sea surface temperatures which will begin to cause weakening sometime in the next 24 - 48 hours.

This cyclone presents an extreme risk to shipping but currently presents no threat to population.

Tropical Storm Karl spawned rapidly and powerfully from a depression to a well organized tropical storm. Low wind shear and high sea surface temperatures fed this system and the forecast now suggests that Karl, having made its first landfall on the eastern Yucatan will eventually restrengthen over the Bay of Campeche to a Category 1 Hurricane before making a second landfall somewhere on the east coast of Mexico. Karl's landfall was just north of Belize at 1245Z (UTC/GMT) with estimated winds of 55 knots (102 kmh/63 mph). Because Karl is not a large system there is a possibility that its deterioration over the Yucatan will hamper its development once it moves out into the Bay of Campeche, however, the conditions are ripe to feed this system as it can once again move from a depression to a hurricane.


Click on images to enlarge.

Tropical Storm Karl

Add one more to the mix. The US National Hurricane Center hasn't issued anything publicly at the time of writing but the US Navy Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center has named the disturbance in the western Caribbean Tropical Storm Karl.

This system located about 300 miles east of Chetumal Mexico and is tracking West-Northwest at about 13 knots (24 kmh/15 mph).

Expect Tropical Storm warnings to be issued for the Yucatan, Belize, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and Cuba.

Hurricane Igor and Hurricane Julia - 14/1400Z

The Atlantic just north of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is a nasty place to be this morning. Two hurricanes are working their way westward across the tropical North Atlantic.

Hurricane Igor flirted with Category 5 yesterday as wind speeds reached 130 knots (241 kmh/150 mph). Initial wind speed has reduced to an estimated 115 knots (213 kmh/132 mph) although broad atmospheric conditions are well in line to support a restrengthening over the next two to three days. Central pressure is currently 945 mb.


Igor is located about 750 miles/1200 km east of the northern Leeward Islands tracking in a West-Northwest direction at about 7 knots (13 kmh/8 mph). The cyclone is expected to slowly recurve poleward and take a classic route around the subtropical ridge. It's still far too early to forecast any possible landfall, but most models are suggesting that Igor will spend most of its time at sea. The unknown factor is Julia. Now that it has increased to hurricane strength there is a greater chance that the two systems will begin to have an effect on each other. That could change Igor's forecast track significantly. Correspondent on Antigua is reporting large swells making an appearance.

Julia became a hurricane, the fifth of the Atlantic season, early today.


It is located 330 miles/535 km west of the Cape Verde Islands tracking West-Northwest at 10 knots (19 kmh/12 mph). Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 65 knots (120 kmh/75 mph). Julia will probably strengthen a little however, the sea surface temperatures along the forecast track become cooler for a short spell which should limit Julia's strength. The upper air divergence (outflow winds) from Igor will likely have the effect of increased wind shear on Julia which will also limit strengthening.



Note: The forecast track for Igor shows a direct hit on Bermuda. This should be viewed very carefully since it is the 5 day forecast track. The actual track could extend to either side of the cone or anywhere in between. And, the track forecast will likely change as the hurricane progresses.

As always, click on any image to enlarge.

Hurricane Igor and Tropical Storm Julia

It took a while for Igor to develop in the tropical eastern Atlantic but now, with some extraordinarily high sea surface temperatures and minimal wind shear, this cyclone has reached the upper limit of Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale and is now a major hurricane. Official NHC guidance is that Igor will not reach Category 5 although that depends on some changing upper air conditions. Most intensity forecasts show support a system that will strengthen today and then gradually weaken as it undergoes eyewall replacement. Some intensity models suggest Igor will indeed become a Cat 5 cyclone.

Igor is located about 940 miles/1500 miles east of the Leeward Islands of the Lesser Antilles tracking westward at 11 knots (20 kmh/13 mph). It packs sustained winds of 130 knots (241 kmh/150 mph). Most models are in agreement that Igor will start to slow its forward progress somewhat and start to adopt a track tendency north of west. That will see the cyclone move slightly poleward before it has a significant impact on the Lesser Antilles. It is far too early to forecast where Igor will become a major threat to population although at least three models suggest a probability of Igor making a pass over Bermuda as a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Julia is located about 85 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands. Initially a bit difficult to pin down, Julia is tracking West-Northwest at about 11 knots (20 kmh/13 mph). Sustained wind speeds are estimated at around 35 knots (65 kmh/40 mph). Julia is not expected to intensify over the next two days, however there is some significant divergence in the forecast models. The current prognosis is that Julia will move further to the north and intensify by mid-week.

We're also watching this somewhat disorganized cloud formation created by a trough of low pressure over the central Caribbean, designated 92L.

Tropical Storm Earl - 041200Z Updated 041300Z

Earl was downgraded to a Tropical Storm late yesterday as it tracked northeast. The cyclone is currently moving directly northeast at 26 knots (48 kmh/30 mph). The latest satellite picture shows a resurgence of convection around the centre.

As can be seen from the latest satellite shot taken just a few minutes before posting, Earl is cutting a wide swath through the Canadian Maritimes and, even though landfall is only minutes away, Earl will remain a powerful cyclone as the centre moves through Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. It will become a post-tropical low after it crosses PEI and enters the Gulf of St Lawrence. Even then it will still be packing high winds.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire Nova Scotia coast, Prince Edward Island, the Magdalen Islands and New Brunswick from Fundy National Park to Fort Lawrence and from Shediac to Tidnish.


For those in western Nova Scotia and the South Shore, those warnings are now matter of fact as they are starting to get the effects of Earl directly. The east side of Earl will possess markedly stronger winds than the western semi-circle. This has to do with the forward motion of the storm. Expect initial winds of 60 knots (111 kmh/69 mph) with stronger gusts in some areas.

Halifax weather radar

Yarmouth Webcam (you might have to refresh this manually)

Lunenburg Webcam

Bedford Basin Webcam

Halifax Harbour Webcam (CBC)

Peggy's Cove webcam

Update: Earl made landfall just before 10 a.m. Nova Scotia time just east of Lockport N.S. The South Shore of NS is going to take the brunt of this one. Halifax is reporting harbour winds of 40 knots (74 kmh/46 mph).

Hurricane Earl takes direct aim at the Maritimes

Hurricane Earl is weakening as it runs into cooler water and feels the effect of the mid-latitude Westerlies. Intensity on the surface is about 75 knots (139 kmh/86 mph). The cyclone is tracking in a direction of north northeast at 18 knots (33 kmh/21 mph) as generally predicted by models and the NHC. Earl is expected to pass Cape Code as a hurricane and continue to weaken.

Earl will most likely make landfall as a strong tropical storm somewhere between the Maine/New Brunswick border and the southeast coast of Nova Scotia sometime on Saturday morning.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued Tropical Storm Warnings for most areas of mainland Nova Scotia and all of Prince Edward Island. Hurricane watches are in effect for Halifax, Lunenburg, Queens, Shelburne, Yarmouth and Digby counties of Nova Scotia.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the remainder of Mainland Nova Scotia, Cape Breton Island, Southeast New Brunswick and Iles de la Madeleine.

Two items are worthy of mention. The winds on the east side of Earl will be markedly greater than the western semi-circle due to its direction of advance. Depending on the time Earl arrives and the direction of its approach to land, the storm surge in the Bay of Fundy could be significant and dangerous, however, expected time of landfall (at low tide) and the Neap tide cycle may mitigate the danger.

TS Fiona is still active and has survived despite considerable wind shear. Tracking north northeast at about 11 knots (20 kmh/13 mph) with weakening wind speeds of an estimated 40 knots (74 kmh/46 mph), Fiona is about 18 hours away from making a direct pass over Bermuda.


Busy weekend for some.

Hurricane Watch for Nova Scotia

As Hurricane Earl advances the Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Hurricane Watch for Yarmouth, Queens, Shelburne and Digby Counties in Nova Scotia. The remainder of the province with the exception of Cape Breton Island, is under a Tropical Storm Watch. In New Brunswick, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Gand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County, Saint John and County, and Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick.

Earl has weakened slightly and is now proceeding due north at about 16 knots. The conditions of warm, humid air and high sea surface temperatures suggest Earl will make a Canadian landfall as a hurricane with tropical characteristics and not become an extra-tropical storm until after it passes into the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

The probabilities of Earl reaching Canadian locations as a Cat 1 hurricane in the next 48 hours, as provided by the NHC are as follows:

Yarmouth NS - 43%
Halifax NS - 16%
St John NB - 27%
Moncton NB - 21%

TS Fiona is tracking as previously discussed and is unusually persistent, having survived despite the higher wind shears.

Gaston has died and is now declared a remnant. That doesn't mean it can't regenerate later, but for now it no longer presents a threat.

A new tropical wave is being closely watched off the coast of Africa.

More later.