Friday, August 03, 2007

Just in case the world wasn't complicated enough...


Let's start the Cold War with Russia all over again.

Via Cernig this report on the prospect of the Russian navy re-establishing a permanent presence in the Mediterranean.
"The Mediterranean Sea is very important strategically for the Black Sea fleet," head of the navy Admiral Vladimir Masorin said yesterday.

"I propose that, with the involvement of the Northern and Baltic fleets, the Russian Navy should restore its permanent presence there."

Buoyed by huge oil revenues and with President Putin showing increasing assertiveness, Russia has been boosting military spending.

At the same time, it has been using diplomacy to broaden Moscow's sphere of influence, especially in the Middle East, and a Russian force would further this cause.

However, it would mean sharing Mediterranean waters with the US Sixth Fleet - whose home base is in Italy - and this could further exacerbate recent tensions between the two.

Well, that's just deja vu all over again. The raison d'etre of NATO is starting to rise on its hind legs.

"It has been the dream of our admirals for a long time to restore our naval greatness and keep the task force we had under the Soviet Union," said military expert Pavel Felgenhauer.
Old habits die hard.

It has not been revealed where the fleet would be based, but the most likely option would be reviving the Tartus base.

"We still maintain a naval station in Syria but that has been mostly standing empty because, after the break-up of the Soviet Union, the naval task force was withdrawn," said Mr Felgenhauer.

Actually, the Russians have been accused of rebuilding their old Soviet-era port facilities in Tartus. Last year Moscow vehemently denied that accusation.

But they have also been busy building facilities at Latakia, Syria, according to the late Russian reporter Ivan Safronov. Late? Oh yeah. He "fell" from a fifth floor window of his apartment building in March after exposing a litany of serious problems within the Russian military and security service. The Kremlin didn't really like him all that much.

A part of the motivation to develop bases in the Mediterranean is the fact that the base they lease from the Ukraine, in Sevastapol, has a limited life-span. The Ukraine has insisted that Russia abide by the bilateral agreement which would see the Russian navy evicted in 2017.

Now, before you jam that paper bag over your mouth, keep in mind the Russian fleet isn't really very big - at the moment. When the Soviet Union collapsed, so too did the Soviet navy. In terms of surface ships, the Russian navy has fewer major surface combatants than the British. But that's changing.

Russia, as its wealth from oil production increases, has expanded its defence spending and has embarked on new ship-building programs. It has also started to refit and re-commission ships which have been laid-up.

Being positioned in the Mediterranean will, no matter what anyone in the Pentagon says, upset the balance of power in the region. The renewed chuminess with Syria will undoubtedly cause the Israelis to go into short fits. Further, based on Russian domestic requirements, being permanently in the Med makes little or no sense unless Putin has a desire to revive Russian influence in the Middle East.

Putin may feel his hand is being forced on this one. His admirals have long been advising that George W. Bush's imperial adventure in Iraq and his sabre-rattling over Iran are cause for concern. The US has embarked on a course of military conquest and the Russian admirals have been pressing to at least meet the US 6th Fleet (Mediterranean) head on.

Is George W. Bush concerned? That's doubtful. He'll be out of office before he's able to figure out what's going on. It will be up to the next president to revive this little document.


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