Friday, September 12, 2008

There's lots not to like about Ike


This one is looking like a real sonofabitch. Hurricane Ike is gathering energy, widening and is likely to become a very large category 4 hurricane over the next few hours. From the US National Hurricane Center:

SHORT TERM EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG GALVESTON ISLAND AND/OR THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...IKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAND TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS
Less technical... brace yourselves.

IKE STILL HAS ABOUT A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...IS THE EFFECT THAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
WIND DATA FROM LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...115 KT OR 130 MPH ...EXIST JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE A REPEAT OF DAMAGE TO WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE STRUCTURES SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED DURING HURRICANE ALICIA IN 1983. THE PEAK WIND SPEED AND VARIOUS WIND RADII WERE HELD HIGHER THAN OUR INLAND WIND DECAY MODELS ARE PREDICTING DUE TO THE MUCH LARGER SIZE OF IKE.

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