Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Typhoon Fitow - Updated computer model tracks

(Click on images to enlarge)

Typhoon Fitow is continuing on its track towards Japan. Intensity is much the same as last report although there has been some development in the eye. A close pass at Chichi Jima verified surface winds and central pressure.

Fitow has sustained maximum winds of 85 knots/98 mph/157 kmh. It is tracking West-Northwest at about 9 knots/11 mph/18 kmh.

There is every indication that the forecast track is good given a weakening trough to the north of the cyclone which will turn it clockwise as it nears Japan.

Landfall is estimated to occur close to Tokyo, perhaps a little to the southwest, the eye passing within 20 kilometers. Time of landfall is estimated at 9 pm Thursday, Japan Standard Time.

Computer modeling suggests Typhoon Fitow will increase to Category 2 before making landfall and then quickly diminish to an extra-tropical depression. Provided there are no other mid-latitude depressions in its path, that forecast should hold.

Luckily we have our own Rev.Paperboy on the ground in Tokyo who can tell us when and if everything comes crashing in.

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