Tropical Storm Alberto should be making landfall shortly. About 21,000 people have been evacuated from various coastal counties in Florida and Governor Jeb Bush has signed a declaration of emergency.
Given all that, Alberto has not really gained any strength and the chances of it turning into a hurricane are slim to none. From the US National Hurricane Center:
WITH A SLUG OF DRY AIR OVERTAKING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...ALBERTO'S CHANCES OF BECOMING A HURRICANE ARE EVAPORATING. THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE CYCLONE IS TAKING ON A LESS-THAN-TROPICAL APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WINDFIELD HAS ALSO BROADENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTWERE 64 KT...WHICH GIVEN THE RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTION...WOULD CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE. A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 0Z DID SHOW WINDS AS HIGH AS 55 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/8. AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE MOVES EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...BUILDING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE TRACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT BEFORE ALBERTO GETS PICKED UP BY THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE CENTER OVER LAND FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ALBERTO SHOULD ACCELERATE IN THE WESTERLIES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 72HOURS...AND IS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
SINCE THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF ALBERTO WILL DECAY ONLY SLOWLY AFTER LANDFALL...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF ONSHORE WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE NORTH OF THE PRESENT WARNING AREA ON THE ATLANTICCOAST. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD.
The GOES East satellite rendering shows very little unexpected and a very disorganized storm.
(Click on image to enlarge)
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