Tuesday, August 30, 2011

End-game in Libya . . .

On the way to Mo's place.

SEEMS MOAMMAR'S DAYS ARE NUMBERED and all sorts of armed people with different agendas are lurching around, some it appears, are settling old scores. With the flight of the Gadhafis to Algeria, that country's rather controlled, brittle consensus may be perturbed as well; we will find out soon enough.

Now, next up, it appears, we have Syria. How long will Bashar last? Will Syria reduce its support for Hamas? Will Iran continue its support, or has Stuxnet made them start to consider consequences?

1 comment:

Purple library guy said...

I'm not certain removing Gaddafi from the picture represents "end-game".

The next part of the match is the struggle between the NATO countries and . . . their own greed. If they can resist co-opting the new government for foreign benefit at the expense of the locals (as they did in, say, Iraq and Afghanistan) then it could be a relatively short game. Otherwise, we're likely to see another initial victory followed by local disillusionment and then a long, grinding insurgency.