Tropical Depression ONE ...

... is forecast to become a Tropical Storm by Saturday morning. If that happens the first named tropical cyclone in that area will become Tropical Storm Alex.

We'll have to wait to see what happens over the next few hours. Jeff Masters has a great history of past systems which developed in a similar fashion.

Most forecast models have this system crossing the Yucatan, increasing in strength but passing west of the oil blow-out area. Right now the concern is the amount of moisture this system will drop (and has already started to drop) on the coastal areas of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and Nicaragua.