This is one big storm. The predictions from the US National Hurricane Center suggest that by 7 am Monday, Ike, after having moved through the central US, could be battering southern Ontario. Before it gets there however, it could spawn a series of tornadoes. Unless the predicted track changes, southern Ontario is likely to see winds in the Tropical Storm category and heavy rains.
Ike's winds will likely decrease in velocity as it moves over the landmass but conditions don't make it any safer.
IKE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. IKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHARP FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY 24-36
HOURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IKE MAY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OR TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED FORWARD SPEED OF IKE'S SURFACE LOW IS SLOWER IN THE ADVISORY THAN MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DUE TO ANTICIPATION OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLING FROM THE LOW-LEVELS AND RACING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO MORE THAN 100 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK
Get your slickers out.
ALTHOUGH IKE IS SPINNING DOWN AS A HURRICANE IN TERMS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...UNFORTUNATELY...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...AND ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AS WILL CONTINUED
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG MUCH OF THE WESTERN LOUISIANAAND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
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