Hurricane Felix - computer model tracks 03/1400Z

The second large Caribbean hurricane of the season is tracking across South America having brushed Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao. (Click on images to enlarge)

Felix started as a tropical depression late on 31 August east of the Antilles and quickly grew to become a tropical storm then a hurricane of rising proportions. In three days it has become a full-scale Category 5 cyclone.

Felix is currently tracking West to Northwest at 18 knots/21 mph/33 kmh and is presently on a direct course for Central America (Honduras and Nicaragua) and the Yucatan Peninsula. Whether it will maintain that track and strength is very much in question. If it moves right of the National Hurricane Center's forecast track, it will strengthen. If it moves left of the NHC forecast track, it will probably weaken.

Winds in the eye have been measured at 162 knots/186 mph/300 kmh and, with a slight weakening in the centre, supports estimated surface winds of 140 knots/161 mph/259 kmh.

Felix has been absorbing huge amounts of water vapour from a heated Caribbean water mass. The immediate concern is that Felix will grow after clearing the South American coast which would be devastating for the Central American countries and the Yucatan. Currently, there is no other weather system which would steer Felix away from it's current approach.

Once it hits the landmass it should start to weaken, however, if it emerges in the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane things could change significantly. A low pressure trough, the strength of which nobody can predict, may move through and steer Felix towards the Texas gulf coast. Right now it's too early to tell and the focus is on Central America.

UPDATE: Check out the comments to this post. Dana has added some excellent information links. Dr. Jeff Masters has noted that Felix developed in 51 hours, a new record for an Atlantic storm becoming a Cat 5 hurricane.

UPDATE: New information here.